An Overview of NCEP Model Guidance for Hurricanes
Harvey, Irma, and Maria (25)
Logan Dawson, I.M.
Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD
Tracey Dorian, I.M.
Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center
Corey Guastini, Pacific
Gas and Electric Company
Geoffrey Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Environmental
Modeling Center
Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Environmental
Modeling Center
Abstract:
A review of model guidance
for the high-impact storms (Harvey, Irma, and Maria) of the 2017 Atlantic
hurricane season will be presented. This presentation will cover the highlights
of exhaustive case reviews conducted by the Model Evaluation Group (MEG) at the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Environmental Modeling
Center. This presentation will cover longer-range predictability as well as
model performance on critical short-range mesoscale details. Model performance
related to track, intensity, and rainfall will be presented.
A complete array of ensemble
and deterministic guidance at multiple spatial and temporal scales was
evaluated to examine the performance of the full spectrum of modeling systems.
Performance was assessed with both objective verification and subjective
evaluations.
Initial focus will be on the
larger scale with comparisons between track and intensity forecasts from the
GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global deterministic models and their associated ensemble
systems. High-resolution track and intensity forecasts from the HWRF and HMON
hurricane models will also be examined. Evaluation of more mesoscale details,
such as heavy rainfall, will also invoke the HREFv2 ensemble and its
deterministic components.
Key forecasting challenges
that will specifically be addressed include: the extreme rainfall from Harvey,
the location of Irma's &ldquoright turn,&rdquo and the intensity
forecasts for Maria as the storm approached Puerto Rico.