Analysis of Convective Parameters in South Florida
(144)
Larry Kelly, NOAA/National
Weather Service, Miami, FL
Thomas Gard, University
of Miami
Stephen Konarik, NOAA/NWS
Miami, FL
Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS
Miami, FL
Abstract:
Forecasters at the Miami
National Weather Service Forecast Office complete a daily convective worksheet
to analyze the potential for thunderstorms, severe weather, and heavy rainfall
for the day. This analysis considers 13 parameters from the 1200 UTC Miami
sounding. Although many studies quantify values of these parameters relative to
severe thunderstorm potential in the U.S., there are none tailoring the values
to South Florida. The objective of this study is to better understand dozens of
parameters and associated meteorological conditions conducive to severe weather
in the South Florida area. Using the RAOB program, which calculates numerous
convective parameters from soundings, typical values that correspond to days
with reports of strong (45-57 mph winds or hail less than 1 inch in diameter)
and severe (tornadoes, 58+ mph winds, or hail at least 1 inch diameter)
thunderstorms were determined. The verifying reports were collected from the
office's internal database as well as the NCDC Storm Data publication. In
addition to the results providing forecasters added tools in interpreting
convective potential, they will be incorporated into the RAOB program itself,
classifying the parameters as low, medium, or high threat for severe weather.
The results are expected to improve the accuracy of convective forecasts for
the Miami National Weather Service Office.