Current and Future Strategies for Verification and
Post-Processing of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Data at the NOAA
Environmental Modeling Center (183)
Jason Levit, NOAA/NWS,
Silver Spring, MD
Geoff Manikin, NOAA/NWS
Hui-Ya Chuang, NOAA/NWS
Abstract:
In May of 2017, the
Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) re-organized, and established the new
Verification, Post-Processing, and Product Generation Branch (VPPPGB). The new
branch was created as part of a decision to recognize the increasing community
emphasis on improving and increasing the amount, and complexity of,
verification and post-processing products derived from numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models. As the global weather enterprise continues to evolve
towards more nuanced, detailed, and derived data from increasingly high
resolution forecast systems, the need for verifying and creating post-processed
products has grown substantially, especially to support the NWS's Impact-Based
Decision Support Services (IDSS) structure. The new VPPPG Branch is therefore
designed to help EMC organize towards supporting current and new verification
and post-processing efforts. This presentation will describe the structure of
the new branch, and illustrate verification and post-processing projects that
are of interest to the community. For example, in terms of creating a Unified
Verification System, EMC is moving towards exclusively using the Model
Evaluation Tools (MET+) software system for all models, and through the EMC
reorganization, the software will be used to establish the branch as the
independent verification component of EMC modeling efforts. Additionally,
several post-processing projects are under development at EMC, including a
possible re-engineering project of the Unified Post-Processing (UPP) software
system, and the development of experimental ensemble probabilistic products for
winter weather hazards. A discussion of these topics, future projects, and
desired community partnerships with the new branch will be included in the
presentation.