Demonstrating the Use of the National Blend of Models in National Weather Service Operations (314)

Cammye Sims, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

Michael Hudson, National Weather Service



The National Weather Service (NWS) is embarking on a transformational change in the Collaborative Forecast Process (CFP) and use of its gridded data at its Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) and National Centers. At the forefront of this change is the National Blend of Models (NBM). The NBM is intended to provide a common starting point for the CFP in a Fully Integrated Field Structure (FIFS).

The NBM Demonstration Initiative operates within the CFP Evolve objective. The Demonstration initiative aims to provide oversight for the NBM requirements process as well as evaluate NBM readiness as a common starting point at NWS field offices through forecaster demonstrations and evaluations. Additionally, the initiative ensures the use of consistent methods and standards to measure the accuracy, reliability, and usability of the NBM. Another key measurement included in these evaluations is the performance of the NBM in extreme weather events.

As each new iteration of the NBM is delivered, a field demonstration begins at WFOs and National Centers so that a validation process is applied to provide metrics on how the NBM is performing in relation to current forecasting techniques. During these demonstrations, a feedback process is facilitated that allows forecaster comments, concerns and suggestions to be collected and considered for improvements of the NBM. This presentation will provide an update on the NBM demonstration and evaluations and present key findings to date, as well as outline the status of integrating those key findings into the NBM requirements process.