Demonstrating the Use of the National Blend of Models
in National Weather Service Operations (314)
Cammye Sims, National
Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland
Michael Hudson, National
Weather Service
Abstract:
The National Weather Service
(NWS) is embarking on a transformational change in the Collaborative Forecast
Process (CFP) and use of its gridded data at its Weather Forecast Offices (WFO)
and National Centers. At the forefront of this change is the National Blend of
Models (NBM). The NBM is intended to provide a common starting point for the
CFP in a Fully Integrated Field Structure (FIFS).
The NBM Demonstration
Initiative operates within the CFP Evolve objective. The Demonstration
initiative aims to provide oversight for the NBM requirements process as well
as evaluate NBM readiness as a common starting point at NWS field offices
through forecaster demonstrations and evaluations. Additionally, the initiative
ensures the use of consistent methods and standards to measure the accuracy,
reliability, and usability of the NBM. Another key measurement included in
these evaluations is the performance of the NBM in extreme weather events.
As each new iteration of the
NBM is delivered, a field demonstration begins at WFOs and National Centers so
that a validation process is applied to provide metrics on how the NBM is
performing in relation to current forecasting techniques. During these
demonstrations, a feedback process is facilitated that allows forecaster
comments, concerns and suggestions to be collected and considered for
improvements of the NBM. This presentation will provide an update on the NBM
demonstration and evaluations and present key findings to date, as well as
outline the status of integrating those key findings into the NBM requirements process.