ENSO and PDO related Variability in South Pacific Circulation Patterns and Seasonal Range Prediction For the Altiplano Region of Bolivia in South America. (76)

Katherine Rojas, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Alexander Korner, University of Missouri

Magali Garcia, Facultad de Agronomia, Universidad Mayor de San Andres

Anthony Lupo, University of Missouri

Jere Gilles, University of Missouri

 

Abstract:

In has been demonstrated that seasonal range prediction over North America can be related to variability on time scales from intraseasonal to interdecadal. Predictability is related to the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, atmospheric blocking, El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These phenomena have an impact on the long-term weather conditions for North America. Similar relationships have been found for seasonal range prediction over South America, by studies examining ENSO-related variability in the South Pacific Jetstream as well as atmospheric blocking. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP / NCAR) reanalyses, the character of circulation patterns were studied over the South Pacific / South America sector from 1976 – 2017. Initial results show that there is a negative correlation in the upper air circulation over the East Pacific and weather conditions in the Altiplano region during winter for ENSO. Also, the ENSO-related variability in the jet-stream pattern in the South Pacific shows a 180 degrees phase difference. Finally, there is evidence that the circulation pattern between phases of the PDO may be different, as indicated by a recent reversal of the interdecadal variability of atmospheric blocking over the South Pacific Region.