Forecast Decision Support Assistance Utilizing the CIPS Extended Analog Threat Guidance (60)

John Gagan, National Weather Service, Milwaukee/Sullivan, Milwaukee, WI

Chad Gravelle, NOAA/NWS Operations Proving Ground, University of Oklahoma - CIMMS

Charles Graves, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University



The Saint Louis University Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems (CIPS) Extended Analog Guidance is an impact-based decision support resource that utilizes an objective approach to obtain similar historic events to the upcoming forecast. The extended analog guidance utilizes the top five most similar analogs from each of the 21 members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to produce guidance based on the 105 most similar analogs. The guidance is based on the 0000 UTC run of the GEFS and is available daily for three-day periods centered on days 7, 10, and 13.

National Weather Service core partners require as much advance notice of impactful weather events as possible. For larger, scheduled events, anticipation and advanced notice of potential impactful weather 1-2 weeks in advance is critical to update or augment plans for public safety. The CIPS Extended Analog Threat Guidance provides temperature, precipitation, wind gust, and convective severe weather information to assist with impact-based decision support. This presentation will describe how the analog guidance was used by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI to assist in supporting the USGA U.S. Open Golf Tournament at Erin Hills, WI for the week of June 12-18, 2017. In addition, we will review the quality of the extended analog guidance during the 2017-18 winter season.