Looking Farther: Medium To Long Range IDSS At NWS
Bismarck (205)
Patrick Ayd, NOAA/NWS,
Bismarck, ND
Chauncy Schultz, NOAA/NWS
Ken Simosko, NOAA/NWS
Corey King, NOAA/NWS
Abstract:
An expanding suite of medium
to long range tools has allowed for high impact climate signals to be
recognized with increasing confidence for messaging to NWS partners. This
climate IDSS has become an increasing component of IDSS operations at NWS
Bismarck. Climate IDSS at the WFO is the fusion of downscaling and adding value
to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) products to address evolving medium to
long range climate vulnerabilities of partners. Examples of comprehensive
operational approaches to extracting high impact climate signals from
teleconnections (MJO, PNA, NAO, AO), the CFSv2, CIPS analogs, GEFS and NAEFS
anomalies, and CPC products will be discussed for multiple climate IDSS efforts
at NWS Bismarck. Both cold and warm season events will be discussed. Included
will be an analysis of targeted IDSS during the deterioration of drought
conditions across North Dakota in the summer of 2017.