Looking Farther: Medium To Long Range IDSS At NWS Bismarck (205)

Patrick Ayd, NOAA/NWS, Bismarck, ND

Chauncy Schultz, NOAA/NWS

Ken Simosko, NOAA/NWS

Corey King, NOAA/NWS



An expanding suite of medium to long range tools has allowed for high impact climate signals to be recognized with increasing confidence for messaging to NWS partners. This climate IDSS has become an increasing component of IDSS operations at NWS Bismarck. Climate IDSS at the WFO is the fusion of downscaling and adding value to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) products to address evolving medium to long range climate vulnerabilities of partners. Examples of comprehensive operational approaches to extracting high impact climate signals from teleconnections (MJO, PNA, NAO, AO), the CFSv2, CIPS analogs, GEFS and NAEFS anomalies, and CPC products will be discussed for multiple climate IDSS efforts at NWS Bismarck. Both cold and warm season events will be discussed. Included will be an analysis of targeted IDSS during the deterioration of drought conditions across North Dakota in the summer of 2017.