Recent Enhancements to National Digital Forecast Database Verification (232)

Tabitha Huntemann, NWS / Meteorological Development Lab, Silver Spring, MD

Linden Wolf, Ace Info Solutions, Inc.

Daniel Plumb, Ace Info Solutions, Inc.

David Ruth, NWS / Meteorological Development Lab

 

Abstract:

The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) of the National Weather Service (NWS) develops and maintains systems to collect and assess the quality of a variety of NWS public and aviation forecasts, including forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). The NDFD contains official NWS forecasts produced by forecasters at local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and national centers on a fine-resolution grid. In order to provide feedback to NWS management about the quality of digital forecasts provided to customers and partners, MDL currently populates and maintains a database of several verification and consistency scores. Scores can be queried via an internal NOAA web site.In this presentation we will provide an overview of the NDFD verification site. This site has provided station-based monthly verification scores of NDFD and guidance from multiple sources for over 10 years. Guidance sources include the Weather Prediction Center, Model Output Statistics, and National Blend of Models (NBM). Grid-based monthly verification scores have been added to the database in the last year and are available for user query. NDFD consistency scores are also now available online and give another measure of forecast quality. Consistency measures whether adjacent points along NWS office borders fall within prescribed element consistency thresholds. This presentation will also give an overview of recent enhancements to the NDFD verification site. New interactive graphing features and an option to download verification scores in comma-separated table output provide users more flexibility to extract scores of interest. Future enhancements include adding scores such as NDFD's Mean Absolute Difference from the NBM common starting point as well as Forecast Convergence Scores that measure the continuity of subsequent issuances from each forecast source.