The 6th Annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment: Synthesizing Atmospheric and Hydrologic Guidance to Rapidly Assess Flash Flood Risk (326)

Sarah Perfater, IM Systems Group, NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD

Benjamin Albright, Systems Research Group, NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT

Mark Klein, NOAA/NWS/WPC

Michael Erickson, CIRES, NOAA/NWS/WPC

James Nelson, NOAA/NWS/WPC

 

Abstract:

The Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaIR) conducted in NOAA's Weather Prediction Center Hydrometeorology Testbed (WPC-HMT) brings together participants from the forecast, research, and modeling communities to investigate methods for improving flash flood forecasting through exercises that apply experimental tools and guidance to the forecast process. The 6th Annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment will be held at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) in College Park, MD over four weeks during the period from June 18 to July 20, 2018. The 2018 FFaIR Experiment will feature both experimental and operational atmospheric and hydrologic guidance used to create daily probabilistic excessive rainfall forecasts. This testbed activity will aim to improve the end-to-end forecast process of predicting impactful heavy rainfall and groundwater conditions that may lead to flash flooding inside a pseudo-operational environment.The 2018 FFaIR Experiment seeks to fuse an array of available high-resolution observational analyses and forecast guidance representing both atmospheric and hydrologic conditions into a comprehensive yet concise process of predicting flash flooding in the short range. In addition to a 24-hour probabilistic Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 1, participants will collaboratively create 6-hour probabilistic flash flood forecasts within that Day 1 period by utilizing multiple platforms and synthesized guidance. Featured experimental guidance will be available from the model development teams at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), ESRL's Global Systems Division (GSD), the National Severe Storms Lab (NSSL), the Office of Water Prediction (OWP), NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), and Oklahoma Unversity's Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) and Flood Locations and Simulated Hydrograph (FLASH) groups.This presentation will exhibit the skill of the experimental probabilistic forecasts and experimental guidance demonstrated in the 2018 FFaIR Experiment. A demonstration of the collaborative forecast process will also be discussed.