The Extreme Precipitation Forecast Table (269)

Diana Stovern, CIRES/WPC, Boulder, CO

James Nelson, WPC

 

Abstract:

Flood-producing heavy rain events are one of the costliest natural disasters to impact the United States. In order to reduce damaging impacts to life and property, operational forecasters need more sophisticated tools and datasets to help communicate the risk and uncertainty to emergency managers for effective decision support.

Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) can be used by forecasters as a decision support tool to express the climatological significance or &ldquorarity&rdquo of a forecast rainfall event. The Extreme Precipitation Forecasting Table (EPFT) is an AWIPS procedure that uses ARIs from the NOAA Atlas 14 to highlight when any piece of QPF guidance is climatologically significant or approaching an extreme event (i.e., 100+ year ARI). It is currently available to WPC, NWS Weather Forecast Offices, Regional Headquarters, and River Forecast Centers within the contiguous United States. This presentation will give an overview of recent developments made to the EPFT, which include the addition of probabilistic information, flash-flood guidance, and improved visualization features, along with some examples of how the EPFT was utilized by operational forecasters during several high impact precipitation events in 2017.