Upgrading the LAMP Guidance System to Meet Expanding Needs of the National Weather Service's National Blend of Models (109)

Judy Ghirardelli, National Weather Service/Office of Science and Technology Integration/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD

Phillip Shafer, National Weather Service/Office of Science and Technology Integration/Meteorological Development Laboratory

Frederick Samplatsky, National Weather Service/Office of Science and Technology Integration/Meteorological Development Laboratory

Adam Schnapp, KBRwyle Science, Technology & Engineering Group

Bob Glahn, National Weather Service/Office of Science and Technology Integration/Meteorological Development Laboratory

 

Abstract:

The National Weather Service's (NWS) Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) is developing the National Blend of Models (NBM) to provide NWS forecasters with a skillful and spatially consistent gridded starting point for preparing National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecasts. The NBM is a statistical system that post-processes meteorologically diverse models into a single solution to assist forecasters and decision makers. MDL's Gridded Localized Aviation MOS Program (Gridded LAMP, or GLMP) provides skillful forecast guidance as a critical component to the short-term NBM.

In response to growing NBM requirements, GLMP guidance is being modified in a number of ways, specifically: 1) ceiling height and visibility guidance elements are being redeveloped based on upgraded inputs, 2) GLMP guidance will expand to cover the 36-hour period to support the NBM, 3) the spatial extent of the GLMP domain over the CONUS will expand to cover the full NBM CONUS domain, and 4) new elements of 1-h Probability of Precipitation (POP01) and 1-h Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (PQPF01) will be added to the GLMP suite to provide additional inputs in support of the NBM. The GLMP PQPF01 will provide calibrated probabilities of exceedance for various thresholds of precipitation amounts as well as a deterministic QPF amount to the NBM. This LAMP upgrade will be implemented into NWS operations in late 2018.

This presentation will summarize the upgrade to improve and expand the GLMP guidance in order to provide the most skillful guidance possible in the short-term period of 1-36 hours to support the NBM. Verification results and case studies will be presented.

Disclaimer: Portions of this research are in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA.