Utilizing the Daily Southern Oscillation Index Changes
to Determine Severe Weather Potential on A Subseasonal Scale (74)
Caleb Brown, University
of Missouri, Columbia, MO
Grace Rubbeck, University
of Missouri
Joseph Renken, KOPN
Radio
Anthony Lupo, University
of Missouri
Abstract:
The ability to predict severe
weather outbreaks on a subseasonal scale is paramount to the agriculture,
emergency management, energy, and defense sectors. Since the daily Southern
Oscillation Index only goes to 1991, via the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
website, we cross referenced them with the ENSO Index provided by the Climate
Prediction Center. We are exploring the statistical significance of severe
weather events based on the Storm Prediction Center Day-1 High and Moderate
Categorical Risk that were analyzed in combination of multiple datasets. These
datasets were separated by three categories of ENSO (El Niño-Southern
Oscillation), season, daily Southern Oscillation Index rise and drop of 10
points, and daily Southern Oscillation Index rise and drop over three days of
20 points (80 cases). Using El Niño Springs after 1991 that had 3-day
20-point drops of the daily SOI as an example, we noticed the post 18 day
composite matched the composite of post-1991 El Niño Spring Moderate
and High Severe Weather Days (108 cases).
The first two authors are undergrads.