Utilizing the Daily Southern Oscillation Index Changes to Determine Severe Weather Potential on A Subseasonal Scale (74)

Caleb Brown, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Grace Rubbeck, University of Missouri

Joseph Renken, KOPN Radio

Anthony Lupo, University of Missouri



The ability to predict severe weather outbreaks on a subseasonal scale is paramount to the agriculture, emergency management, energy, and defense sectors. Since the daily Southern Oscillation Index only goes to 1991, via the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website, we cross referenced them with the ENSO Index provided by the Climate Prediction Center. We are exploring the statistical significance of severe weather events based on the Storm Prediction Center Day-1 High and Moderate Categorical Risk that were analyzed in combination of multiple datasets. These datasets were separated by three categories of ENSO (El Ni&ntildeo-Southern Oscillation), season, daily Southern Oscillation Index rise and drop of 10 points, and daily Southern Oscillation Index rise and drop over three days of 20 points (80 cases). Using El Ni&ntildeo Springs after 1991 that had 3-day 20-point drops of the daily SOI as an example, we noticed the post 18 day composite matched the composite of post-1991 El Ni&ntildeo Spring Moderate and High Severe Weather Days (108 cases).

The first two authors are undergrads.