A QUICK REFERENCE GUIDE FOR
OPERATIONAL FORECASTING PAPERS (Updated 2011 for Proper Internet Links)
John D. Gordon*
Weather Service Forecast Office Louisville, KY
**ENSCO Inc. Aerospace
Sciences and Engineering Division Chicago, IL
There has been a cornucopia of operational forecasting papers written on a
wide variety of topics in recent years. It is very arduous for the operational
forecaster to keep track of scattered binders, pamphlets, journals, and
notebooks of meteorological and hydrological papers and studies within the
individual's office. This is the second revision of the paper that was
originally published as Central Region TSP 98-01. This second revision was to
correct bad web links, remove hard to locate manuscripts such as papers in the
Iowa Technical Journal, and to remove outdated technology such as NWS
AFOS. Due to many requests, the manuscript now has been consolidated to
include both hyperlinked texts and non-hyperlinked texts. Many topics have been
expanded, such as CSI, MCS, tornadoes, and the WSR-88D. In addition, many
new topics, such as cloud microphysics, dynamic cooling, gust fronts, and
several case studies have been added.
This guide will help fill the gap for the operational forecaster by indexing
the various topics by season and author. Older rules of thumb and techniques
were included, such as Forecasting Ground Blizzards (Van Ess 1985), and
Improving Over MOS Guidance (Hendrickson 1983). Additional references are
included on newer operational techniques, such as Estimating the VIL of the Day
(Wilken 1994), Heavy Rain Forecasting Techniques (Funk, 1993), and Rotational
Shear Nomograms (Falk, 1998).
II. SOURCES OF INFORMATION
Scientific Services Divisions (SSD) from Central, Eastern, Southern, and
Western regions provided indices for all Technical Attachments (TA), Applied
Research Papers (ARP), and Technical Memoranda (TM) for the last 10 years. In
addition, various internet home pages were perused, both civilian and military,
for more material. Finally, conference preprints and post-prints were obtained
to complete this guide. This guide is by no means a complete list of the
various subjects, but rather attempts to give the forecaster several
perspectives from different authors.
This guide is separated by subject matter, and attempts to cover most
weather phenomena that affect the operational field forecaster. A few of the
authors topics are listed under two different subject titles. For example,
"Composite 500 mb Arctic Outbreak Patterns" by Van Ess, is listed
under both ARCTIC and 500 MB.
The material can be used in two ways. If the forecaster wants to prepare for
an upcoming weather season, he or she can look through the references on a
particular subject. Secondly, if a forecaster is writing a paper or forecast
study, they have a quick and easy list of references right at their fingertips
from which to begin. Due to large number of subjects, the guide has been broken
down into five parts: spring, summer, fall, winter, and general topics. The
links provided in this document will take the reader to those papers that are
available online. For a paper that is not available online, the link will
connect you to the bibliography line. It is hoped that this guide will help you
to become a better operational forecaster. One final footnote; the authors
plan on updating this manuscript in 2012 with new topics, searching for the
absolute best papers for each subject, and having most of the paper linkable to
the world wide web.
III. SPRING SEASON and THUNDERSTORMS
BOOKEND VORTEX - Pfost and Gerard (1997)
BOUNDARIES - Atkins and Weisman (1998), Markowski et al., (1998), Maddox
et al., (1980)
BOW ECHO - Przybylinski
BOW ECHO: CASE STUDIES - Gerard (1997), Przybylinski and Schmocker (1993)
BOW ECHO: METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS - Johns
BOW ECHO: OBSERVATIONS - Klimowski et al., (2000), Weisman
CAPE VERSUS HELICITY - Evans (1997), Mead (1995), Johns et al., (1990)
CAPPING INVERSION & THUNDERSTORMS - Emlaw
CHECKLIST - Gordon and
Albert (2000), Miller (1972)
DERECHO: SPRING CASE STUDIES - Rose and Troutman (1998)
DERECHO: WSR-88D CASE STUDY - Small (1996)
DOWNBURSTS - Ladd (1992)
DRY MICROBURST - Vasiloff et al.,
(1997), Wakimoto (1984)
EHI - Davies (1993)
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER: PREDICTING SEVERE STORMS - Lanicci and Warner (1991a), Lanicci
and Warner (1991b), Lanicci and Warner (1991c),
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL - Liles (1983)
FORECASTING - Johns and Doswell (1992), Maddox and Doswell (1982)
GUST FRONT - Chapman
and Holmes (1998)
HAIL - Moore and Pino (1990), Shanklin (1989)
HAIL & THE WSR-88D VIL - Edwards and
HELICITY - Mead (1995), Craven
(1992), Davies-Jones et al., (1990)
HELMHOLTZ INSTABILITY - Kingsmill (1993)
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL - Edwards et al.,
HP SUPERCELLS - Moller and Przybylinski (1990)
HP SUPERCELLS: WSR-88D - Przybylinski et
JET STREAM - Glass (1993), Uccellini (1990)
LEFT MOVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM - Phillips
LIGHTNING: FORECASTING CONVECTIVE WEATHER - Lewis
LIGHTNING: RADAR OBSERVATIONS - Elson and
LIGHTNING: TORNADIC SUPERCELL - Perez et al.,
(1995), Kane and LaPenta (1991)
LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS - Boyne (1995), Murphy and Woods (1992)
MACROBURST ON RADAR - Achtemeier et al., (1993)
MESOSCALE PREDICTION - Fujita (1992)
MICROBURST - Byrd (1990), Ellis
and Oakland (1989)
MIXING RATIO - Weinbrecht (1987)
MOISTURE COVERGENCE - Bothwell (1986)
NOCTURNAL SEVERE OUTBREAKS - Fike (1996)
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES - Smith (1996)
NORTHWEST FLOW - Johns (1984)
OUTBREAKS: BOW ECHOES VERSUS SUPERCELLS - Johns
and Hart (1993)
OUTBREAKS: COLD CORE - Goetsch (1988)
PROFILER - Rich (1992)
REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT - Pfost et al., (1997),
Lemon and Doswell (1979)
SATELLITE - Goetsch (1987), Purdom (1986)
SATELLITE: COMMA CLOUDS - Millard and Carr
SATELLITE: ENHANCED V SIGNATURE - McCann (1981)
SATELLITE: IR - Byrd (1987)
SATELLITE: TRAINING CASE STUDY - Weaver et al.,
SATELLITE: WATER VAPOR - Ellrod (1990)
SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS - Konvicka (1989)
SINGLE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL - Falk et al.,
SMALL/MINI SUPERCELLS - Grant and Prentice
(1996), Davies (1993)
SPLITTING THUNDERSTORMS -Graham and
Staudenmaier Jr. (1997), McCann (1983),
SQUALL LINES - Bluestein and Jain (1985)
STORM RELATIVE WIND - Thompson (1998)
SUPERCELLS - Moller et al., (1994)
SUPERCELLS: SOUNDINGS - Edwards and
SUPERCELLS: HODOGRAPHS - Bunkers et al.,
(2000), Brown (1990)
TORNADIC SQUALL LINE - Wolf (2000)
TORNADO - Branick (1995), Doswell et al., (1993), Johns and
TORNADO: ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS - Livingston
and Wilson (1986)
TORNADO: ANTICYCLONIC - Monteverdi
et al., (2000)
TORNADO CASE STUDY: JARRELL, TX 5/27/97 - Corfidi (1998)
TORNADO CASE STUDY: LAWRENCE COUNTY, TN 4/16/98 - Gordon et
TORNADO CASE STUDY: LOWER OHIO VALLEY 6/2/90 - Manuel
and Delisi (1993)
TORNADO CASE STUDY: MISSISSIPPI 11/27/94 - Pfost
et al., (1995)
TORNADO CASE STUDY: OKLAHOMA OUTBREAK 5/3/99 - Thompson
and Edwards (2000)
TORNADO CASE STUDY: PLAINFIELD, IL 8/28/90 - Fujita
TORNADO: EXITING TROPICAL CYCLONES - Edwards (1998)
TORNADO: FORECASTING SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND HODOGRAPHS - Davies (1989)
TORNADO: MOUNTAINS - Evans and Johns (1996), Fujita (1989)
TORNADO: PREPAREDNESS, SPOTTERS, MEDIA, & WSR-88D - Foster et al., (1995)
TORNADO: RAPID SCAN - Purdom and Weaver (1992)
VARIABILITY OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY - Markowski
et al., (1998), Davies-Jones (1993)
VERY LARGE HAIL (4" & GREATER) - Polston
VIL DENSITY - Amburn and Wolf (1995), Wilken (1994)
WET BULB ZERO - Shanklin (1989)
WET MICROBURST - Atkins and Wakimoto (1991)
WIND AND INSTABILITY - Davies (1993)
WIND GUSTS - Frazier (1994)
WINDEX - McCann (1994)
WSR-88D: BOW ECHO - Gerard
WSR-88D: DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE - Lemon and
WSR-88D: ELEVATED CONVECTION - Labas (1995)
WSR-88D: LRM PRODUCTS - Turner (1995)
WSR-88D: MARC SIGNATURE - Wally (1998)
WSR-88D: MESOCYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS DURING AN OUTBREAK - Turnage et al.,
WSR-88D: NOMOGRAMS - Brown
WSR-88D: NON-SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO - Lemon and
Quoetone (1995) Amburn and Piltz (1993)
WSR-88D: PREDICTING TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS - Lewis (1998)
WSR-88D: SHEAR PRODUCTS - Falk and Parker (1998),
WSR-88D: SPECTRUM WIDTH - Buller and Mentzer (1998)
WSR-88D: TVS - Trapp and Mitchell (1995b)
WSR-88D: TVS: DESCENDING & NONDESCENDING - Trapp et al., (1999)
WSR-88D: VIL VERSUS ROTATIONAL RELOCITY - Murphy et al., (1994)
WSR-88D: WARNING DECISION TECHNIQUES - Falk (1997), Quoetone et al.,
700-500 MB LAPSE RATE - Craven (2000), Doswell III et al., (1985)
IV. SUMMER SEASON
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY CENTER (CIVC) - Imy
DERECHOS - Johns et al., (1990)
DERECHO: SUMMER CASE STUDY - Miller
and Johns (2000)
FLASH FLOOD DECISION TREE - Johnson and Moser
FLASH FLOOD FORECASTING - Doswell et al., (1995)
HAZE - Corfidi (1996)
HEAT CHECKLIST - Falk and Christmas (1989)
HEAT INDEX - Rothfusz (1990)
HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTING - Funk (1993), Junker (1992)
HEAVY RAINFALL & FLASH FLOOD FORECASTING - Maddox
(1979b), Maddox et al., (1979)
HEAVY RAINFALL: BIG THOMPSON CANYON, CO (7/76), & RAPID CITY, SD
(6/72) - Maddox et al., (1978)
HEAVY RAINFALL: CASE STUDIES - Glass et al.,
(1995), Capriola (1993)
HEAVY RAINFALL: CHEYENNE, WY 8/1/95 - Glancy
and Daseler (1986)
HEAVY RAINFALL: CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED THICKNESS - Rose et al.,
HEAVY RAINFALL: GREAT FLOOD OF 1993 - Junker et
HEAVY RAINFALL: JOHNSTOWN, PA 7/19/77 - 7/20/77 - US
Department of Commerce (1977)
HEAVY RAINFALL: HODOGRAPHS & CHECKLIST - Hendricksen (1993)
HP SUPERCELL: FLASH FLOOD - Moore et al., (1995)
MCS - Daly (1998a), Daly
(1998b), Maddox (1980)
MCS: DAYTIME SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC WIND MAXIMUM - Augustine (1992)
MCS: DISSIPATION - Gale et al., (2000)
MCS: ELEVATED - Rochette et al., (1996)
MCS: LATE AFTERNOON TROPOSPHERIC SIGNALS - Augustine
and Caracena (1993)
MCS: MARC - Schmocker et al., (1996)
MCS: MOVEMENT - Corfidi
et al., (1995)
MCS: POTENTIAL VORTICITY STREAMER - Tollerud et
MONSOONAL CHECKLIST - Haro (1998)
MVC - Schmidt (2000)
SATELLITE - Thiao et al., (1995), Goetsch (1982)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: TORNADO ENVIRONMENTS - Vescio
et al., (1996), McCaul Jr. (1991), Weiss (1985)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: COASTAL FRONT TORNADOES - Hudgins and
WESTERN USA THUNDERSTORM GUST POTENTIAL - McDonald
WSR-88D HEAVY RAIN CASE STUDY - Egger and Vasiloff
WSR-88D MESO-VORTICES IN HURRICANE BERTHA (1996) - Wright and Bennett (1997)
V. COOL SEASON
COLD AIR FUNNELS - Cooley (1978)
COLD CORE THUNDERSTORMS - Grant (1995)
CLOUDS - Walawender (1994)
ELEVATED CONVECTION - Colman (1990a), Colman (1990b)
FOG - Croft et al., (1997), Naistat (1988), Feldt and Hughes
INDICES - Rogash (1994)
LIGHTNING AND TORNADO RELATIONSHIP - Carle and
POPS - Lulofs (1994)
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT - Canepa and Strobin
TORNADO - BENTONIA, MS 12/10/99 - Gerard et al., (2000)
TORNADO - COOL SEASON CONDITIONS - Vescio and
TORNADO - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - Blier and Batten
TORNADO - RALEIGH, NC 11/28/88 - Gonski et al.,
WSR-88D SUPERCELL - Calianese et al., (1996)
VI. WINTER SEASON
ARCTIC - Van Ess
(1997), Van Ess (1985)
BLIZZARD CASE STUDY - Holsten and Hendricks (1997),
CHECKLIST - Gordon (1997)
COMPOSITE CHART - Janish et al., (1996)
COUPLED JET CASE STUDY - Shea and Przybylinski
CSI: CASE STUDIES - Mann (1997), Browning and Foster (1995), Colman
CSI: EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY - Moore and
CSI: FORECAST TECHNIQUES - Snook (1992)
CSI: RELATIONSHIP TO THUNDER AND HEAVY SNOW - Bradshaw
CSI: WSR-88D - Grumm et al., (1994)
DYNAMIC COOLING - Steigerwaldt
EAST COAST SNOWSTORMS - Kocin and Uccellini
EVAPORATIVE COOLING - Matthews (1996),
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS CHECKLIST - Gurka et al.,
FLOOD - Naglic (1990)
FREEZING PRECIPITATION - Weber (1998), Cortinas Jr. and Crisp (1995)
FREEZING RAIN & ICE PELLETS - Johnson (1999), Weber (1998)
FREEZING RAIN & THE WSR-88D - Thomas and
Marwitz (1995), Leduc (1992)
HEAVY RAINFALL - Moore and Gagan
HEAVY SNOW CASE STUDY - Cobb and Albright (1995)
HIGH WIND DECISION TREE FOR W TX & SE NM - Murdoch and Deberry
INSTABILITY BURST - Scofield and Robinson
(1990), Scofield (1989)
INSTABILITY BURST: CASE STUDY - Medlin (1993)
ISENTROPIC - Garcia
(1999), Wilken (1990)
JETS & QG - Hakim and Uccellini (1992), Wilken (1990), Uccellini and
LAKE EFFECT SNOW - Niziol et al., (1995), Niziol and Levan (1992), Niziol
LAKE EFFECT SNOW: HOURLY FORECAST SOUNDINGS - Niziol and Mahoney (1997)
LAKE EFFECT SNOW: 850 TEMP, 850/700 UVV, 850/700 RH - Evans (1996)
LIGHTNING - Hunter
et al., (1998), Holle and Watson (1996)
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR - Faught and Rosemark
MAGIC CHART - Outlaw (1994), Kirkpatrick (1990)
MICROPHYSICS - Staudenmaier Jr.
(1999), Baumgardt (1999)
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE - Bodner (1996)
PRECIPITATION TYPE - Czys et al., (1996), Mamrosh (1993), Ramer (1993), McNulty (1988)
PROFILERS - Schumacher (1993)
SATELLITE - Scofield and Robinson (1990),
SATELLITE (IR) & SNOW BAND WIDTH - Morrison
SATELLITE TECHNIQUES FOR FORECASTING HEAVY SNOW - Johnson (1995)
SEA FOG and STRATUS - Johnson and Graschel
SNOW ACCUMULATION VERSUS SOIL TEMPERATURE - Brown
SNOWSTORM: LOUISVILLE 1/94 - Funk and Moore
SNOWSTORM: STORM OF THE CENTURY (3/93) - Bradshaw
SQUALL LINE - Trayers and Riordan (1996)
SURPRISE SNOWSTORM - Gerard et al.,
SYNOPTIC REGIMES - Mathewson and Nouhan (2002)
TEMPERATURE & SNOW COVER - Jensen
(1997), Richardson (1990), CRH (1973)
TROPOPAUSE FOLD: STORM OF THE CENTURY (3/93) - Holiday
and Smith (1995)
TORNADO - Herald and
WINDEX - Lundstedt (1993)
WSR-88D BRIGHT BANDING - Somrek (1995)
WSR-88D FREEZING RAIN & OVERRUNNING - Prater
and Borho (1992)
WSR-88D & LIGHTNING - Gremillion and
925 MB - Figurskey (1994)
500 MB - Van Ess
(1997), Steigerwaldt (1991)
VII. GENERAL TOPICS
ACARS - Martin
(2000), Mamrosh (1993)
AVIATION: LOW LEVEL SHEAR - Johnson (1994)
AVIATION: "OCCASIONAL" - Felton
AVIATION: PIREPS - Arkell (1991)
AVIATION: PROFILER DATA - Thaler (1992)
BARNES OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS - Cook (1999)
COASTAL FLOOD FORECASTING - Sobien and Paxton
DAM FAILURE - Kane et al., (1996)
DEFORMATION ZONE - Steigerwaldt (1986),
L. Funk (1982)
DOWNSLOPE WIND - Dunn (1999), Tesar and Keighton
FIRE WEATHER - Lyster and Murdoch
FORECAST STUDY - Nastrom (1990)
GOES SOUNDER - Schrab
GRAVITY WAVES - Koch
et al., (1997), Abelman (1989)
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING: NWS EASTERN REGION - LaPenta
et al., (1995), Optiz et al., (1995)
HYDROLOGY - Stewart (1991)
ISENTROPIC - Moore (1999),
Hickman (1996), Truett (1987)
JETS & QG - Thaler (1991), Berry (1988)
LIGHTNING - Holle and Lopez (1993)
LOW LEVEL JET - Beckman (1995)
MESOHIGHS - Charney and Fritsch (1996)
MODEL BIASES - HPC
(2000), Sullivan et al.,
MODEL: MRF - Oravec (1995)
MOS & TEMPERATURES - Ansuini (1996), SRH SSD (1994), Hendrickson
MOUNTAIN WAVE - WRH SSD (1985)
OROGRAPHIC - Huston (1990)
PATTERN RECOGNITION - Togstad (1989), Browning (1986)
PRECIPITABLE WATER - Schultz (1982)
PRESSURE - Leblang (1989), Sangster (1985)
PROFILER - Phillips and Baker (1993), Thaler (1989)
QPF - Amburn (1994), Junker
SATELLITE: EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES - Scofield
and Spayd Jr. (1983)
SATELLITE: FORECAST FUNNEL - Scofield (1993)
SATELLITE: HEAVY PRECIP CONVECTIVE CATEGORIES - Scofield (1985)
SATELLITE: HEAVY PRECIP ESTIMATES - Scofield
SATELLITE: SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNATURES - Spayd
Jr. and Scofield (1983)
SATELLITE: USERS MANUAL - Bader et al., (1992)
SKEW-T - Hart and Korotky (1991)
STATEMENTS - Smith (2000),
Tipton and Hamen (1999)
THETA E - Baker (1992)
VORTICITY & UPPER LEVEL FRONTS - Gibson
WAKE LOW - Voelker (2000)
WATERSPOUT FORECASTING - Brown and Rothfuss
WATER VAPOR PLUME - Scofield and Robinson
(1990), Beckman (1987)
WSR-88D: CLUTTER SUPPRESSION - Sanders and
Vasiloff (1996), Lipe and Phillips (1996)
WSR-88D: MESOCYCLONES AT LONG RANGES - Glass and
WSR-88D: PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES - Sampson
WSR-88D: PRF - Phillips (1995)
The authors are very grateful to Geoffrey Sego, a student at the University
of Louisville for methodically checking over every one of the links.
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